Turmeric futures (Dec) may trade sideways & consolidate in the range of 6950-7090 levels. At present, the demand is bleak at the spot markets due to quality issue of yellow spices. However, any sharp downside may get restricted as the producers are reluctant to offload their produce at the current prices.
Cardamom futures (Dec) may witness a consolidation in the range of 1315-1355 levels. The talks over a possible shortage in the availability of the aromatic spice following drought conditions prevailing in Kerala has prompted the market participants of the spot markets to buy and that in turn are pushing up the cardamom prices. The second round of picking is under way currently and that might last till mid-this month. The North Indian dealers are actively covering on the fear of a likely shortage in the coming days because of the unfavorable weather conditions. On the supply side, the second round is expected to start from December first week and may last till end of the month. India’s cardamom output is likely to fall by 30-40% in 2016-17 due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Jeera futures (Dec) will possibly take support near 16350 levels & the downside may remain capped supported by projection of lower supplies ahead. Very little cumin seed stocks are left in the major mandies, which is a positive factor for the commodity as new crop is expected to hit domestic market only by the month of March.
A sell on rise opportunity will continued to be seen in soybean futures (Dec) & it can test 2950 levels as fundamentals are weak for long term. In its revised crop projection for Kharif 2016, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has put India’s soybean crop at 114.9 lakh tonnes (lt), about 5% higher than the initial crop estimate of 108.8 lt. The increase in output is attributed to lower damage and better yield mainly in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. This year, the sowing area has remained almost stable at 109.7 lakh hectares and the yield is expected to be in the range of 968-1,102 kg/hectare. Production in the three major growing States is expected to be 57 lt in Madhya Pradesh, 39 lt in Maharashtra and 9 lt in Rajasthan. On CBOT, U.S soybean futures (Jan) rose 0.38 percent to $9.88 a bushel, having closed down 0.18 percent on Monday.
Mustard futures (Dec) may witness a consolidation in the range of 4500-4580 levels. At the spot markets, price of mustard oil is steady as demand is as per requirement. In near term, the supplies of mustard seed may drop in the spot markets, but will be sufficient to cater crushers demand.
Refined soy oil futures (Dec) & CPO futures (Dec) will probably witness a higher range of 678 & 532 levels, taking optimism from the U.S soybean oil futures & Malaysian palm oil. The rising consumption during winter season & lower inventories in the international market may fuel the edible oil prices.
Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to trade higher & can test 940-950 levels. With ginners receiving less of the cotton crop from the farmers, the mills are also finding it difficult to purchase cotton due to poor supply & this may add to the bullish sentiments. The value chain has very less cotton stock in their inventories and the low supply from farmers may slowdown ginning activity which will result in scarcity of cotton to mills leading to rise in cotton price. In the international market, the market participants are looking at the specifics of the exports & in futures there are more exports waiting to happen to China.
Cotton oil seed cake futures (Dec) is likely to take support near 2000 levels & gain towards 2050-2060 levels taking positive cues from higher cotton prices. Further the quality of cotton oilcake arriving in the market is good as it is containing less moisture and higher oil content. Cattle feed manufacturers have started bulk buying around Rs 1,900/100kg for their long term requirement. The demand for cotton oilcake is likely to increase in future as winter season is nearing and consumption is more during winter season.
Sugar futures (Dec) may continue to show weakness as it can drop towards 3340 levels. The latest estimates by Govt. have highlighted that the domestic sugar consumption is estimated at about 25.52 MT, the stock position at the close of the 2016-17 season is likely to be at 4.73 MT, which will be carried forward for the next season. Apart from this, the various government measures are in place to maintain sufficient stocks in the country and keep the sugar prices under check.
Courtesy: Smc Comtrade