NCDEX Jeera expected to trade 17015-17705 range

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Jeera on NCDEX settled down -0.66% at 17320 driven by a weak trend at spot market amid lack of availability of smaller denomination notes. Besides, expectation of higher output was also adding pressure on prices. The Jeera crop is expected to be good in 2016/17 due to higher prices realization by the farmers during last year. Moreover, most parts of North-West India have received normal to excess rainfall during the monsoon months will support good yield and higher acreage.

Jeera sowing started in Gujarat state.Current year Jeera sowing completed around 36600 hectares as compared to last year same period 18000 hectares, as on 14-11-2016.Normal area in Gujarat reported 339000 hectares. Meanwhile, jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have picked up and anticipation of good harvest next season encouraging the stockists to sell their old crop in the physical market. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to last year same period.

The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%. Indian cumin is priced $200 lower than the stock in Syria and Turkey at $2500 per tonne but there are no takers with China going slow on purchase. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.06% to settled at 7827 while prices down -115 rupee, now Jeera is getting support at 17168 and below same could see a test of 17017 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 17513, a move above could see prices testing 17707.

Trading Ideas:
–Jeera trading range for the day is 17015-17705.
–Jeera prices dropped driven by a weak trend at spot market amid lack of availability of smaller denomination notes.
–Jeera crop is expected to be good in 2016/17 due to higher prices realization by the farmers during last year.
–NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 27 tonnes to 986 tonnes.
–In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -38.75 rupees to end at 18180 rupee per 100 kg.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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