Cardamom may trade on a bullish note; Mustard likely to downside bias

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Turmeric futures (Nov) is likely to witness a consolidation in the range of 7250-7450 levels & trade with an upside bias. A steady is being observed in spot turmeric markets in the presence of encouraging advices from domestic and exports demand front. Only good quality in the medium variety turmeric is being sold. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric traded at Rs.7,355-8,656 a quintal; the root variety Rs.7,199-7,855. Turmeric in the near term may trade steady as lower stocks may support prices from any major downside.

Cardamom futures (Nov) may trade on a bullish note as it has the potential to test 1350 levels. A firm trend is continuing to prevail at the auctions on good demand following fear of squeezed availability given the erratic climatic conditions this year. Currently, the second round of picking is under way and due to the unfavorable weather conditions prevailing in the growing regions the harvesting might end up with the third round of picking. Any positive change in this scenario would come only if the north east monsoon arrived on time and remained normal.

Jeera futures (Nov) may consolidate in the range of 17200-17600 levels. Sellers are looking to sell their stocks at rise and don’t want to hold as sowing of new crop is expected to surge this season, which may pressure in the near term. On the demand side, Chinese buyers are active, which have been the main buyers of the commodity in the past months to meet their domestic demand due to lower crop there.

Soybean futures (Nov) will possibly take support near 3090 levels & witness some lower level buying. Demand is improving from crushers to stock soybean for their long term requirement as quality of soybean is acceptable. stockiest are buying aggressively since last two days as the moisture content of soybean has reduced to 10 percent from 13 percent last week coupled with lower prices. On CBOT, the most active soybean futures Sv1 fell 0.2 percent to $10.09-1/2 a bushel, having closed little changed on Monday.

Mustard futures (Nov) may consolidate in the range of 4510-4560 levels & trade with a downside bias. A bearish tone is prevailing at the spot markets, with mustard prices hitting fresh 13-month low in benchmark Jaipur market amid subdued demand. Crushing is in disparity which is not allowing millers to carry out their crushing activity in large quantity. Demand of mustard oil and mustard oil cake is hand to mouth from the stockiest. Moreover, all focus is on sowing that is going on in Rajasthan and in next fifteen days sowing will be completed. According to Rajasthan agriculture department mustard seed sowing in the state as on October 24, 2016 stood at 13.69 lakh hectares vs 4.72 lakh hectares same period a year ago.

Refined soy oil futures (Nov) is expected to trade within the range of 662-675 levels. Soy oil prices are drawing support on improving demand for winter stocking as demand is shifting from rival palm oil as the same solidifies in cold weather.

Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to trade in the range of 895-915 levels. In Gujarat, the state has decided to procure cotton directly from farmers, with prices having dipped below the MSP. The necessary directions have been to the civil supplies corporation, Nafed, Gujarat State Cooperative Marketing Federation, Gujarat State Co-Operative Cotton Federation and Cotton Corporation of India. Cotton prices are gaining in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on good demand from mills at the lower level and lower supply. Secondly, exporters are active as well, mainly from Bangladesh and they are buying cotton in the range of Rs 3,950-4,025/maund (71.80-73.20 cents/Lb). The crash in cotton prices over a month, due to a better than expected crop and increased arrivals, has had exporters starting to look at signing of contracts for future shipments. On the international market, Cotton futures are getting perked up by speculative buying and a healthy demand for the natural fiber.

Sugar futures (Dec) may witness a consolidation in the range of 3450-3480 levels. The Union Cabinet approved extending the stock limit on sugar by six months till April 2017, a government release said. This will enable the state governments to ensure sugar availability and control prices. Also, governments will be able to issue control order with the prior concurrence of central government for fixing stock limits/licencing requirements in respect of sugar, it said.

Guar seed (Nov) may plunge further towards 3300-3250 levels taking bearish cues from the rising arrivals & lackluster demand at spot markets.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade

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