Cardamom expected to move 1120-1160 levels; Kapas likely to fall

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Turmeric futures (Nov) may fall towards 6800 levels. The counter is trapped amidst the mixed fundamentals of demand & supply. With better sowing and favorable weather turmeric crop is likely better than last year, has prompted buyers to do need based buying instead in bulk. The latest statistics highlight that turmeric sowing in Andhra Pradesh as on September 28 has reached at 14,000 hectares as compared to 15,000 hectares last year, while in Telangana acreage stood at 46,000 hectares versus 41,000 hectares. Secondly, supplies of turmeric in the market are mostly thin, and most are medium to inferior grade, which has prompted buyers to stay sideline.

Cardamom futures (Nov) will possibly consolidate in the range of 1120-1160 levels. Harvesting is in full swing now in all the estates and according to the trade in Bodinayakannur 75% of the capsules arriving at the auctions are from the new crop. Condition of the late crop would mainly depend on the behaviour of the ensuing North East monsoon. Total arrivals during the season from August 01 up to October 1, 2016 were at 4,141 tonnes and sales were at 3,819 tonnes.

Jeera futures (Nov) trading near its 10 week low, will possibly continue remain in bearish zone & witness a consolidation in the range of 16400-16790 levels. Currently, the farmers are not carrying cumin in market, whereas stockiest are buying as per their immediate requirements. Demand of seed cumin expected to start by the mid of October. A large quantity of cumin will be used as seed as farmers are likely to cultivate more this season due to better realization.

Soybean futures (Nov) is looking bearish & can descend further towards 3050 levels. The counter is presently reeling under the pressure of arrivals from the ongoing harvesting season. Soybean harvest has commenced in the key growing regions of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra and the price have turned bearish in the recent weeks on projections of a good crop this year. It is estimated that in the second half of October the arrivals at the spot markets are set to increase. On CBOT, The most active soybean futures rose 0.4 percent to $9.49-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.9 percent on Wednesday. The gains may remain capped as year-on-year U.S. soybean supply is expected to increase at three times the rate of the previous year. Mustard futures (Nov) will possibly find some support near 4500-4450 levels. There may be tight supply in coming months as the stocks may exhaust till new crop arrival in Feb, as 15 lakh tonne is available with average monthly crushing estimated at 3 lakh tonne. New mustard crop will arrive only after February.

Refined soy oil futures (Nov) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 650-660 levels. The counter is likely to get support from the rising edible consumption during the upcoming festive season.

CPO futures (Oct) might face resistance near 522 levels. Demand is seen slowing in the final quarter of the year when consumers in the northern hemisphere switch to soyoil, as palm solidifies in colder temperatures.

Kapas futures (Apr) may trade with a downside bias & even fall towards 845 levels.

Cotton price may come under pressure as the supplies are likely to improve in the days to come. It is reported by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, that in 2016/17, the cotton area in India contracted by 8%, to just under 11 million hectares, due to competition from other crops such as maize. However, a 9% increase in the average yield to 526 kg/ha will likely offset the losses in area and production is expected to remain stable at 5.8 million tons. Exports from India are forecast to fall by 35% to 820,000 tons. Secondly, the average yield of world cotton is projected to improve by 9% to 753 kg/ha, and world production in 2016/17 is expected to increase by 7% to 22.6 million tons.

Sugar futures (Dec) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3540-3580 levels with upside getting capped. The government clarified that the country has adequate domestic stocks to meet any extra festival demand. For the past six months, sugar price has been almost stable and the government has been constantly monitoring the rates, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution stated.

Mentha oil futures (Oct) is likely to trade in the range of 855-875 levels & the upside may remain capped as the sentiments of the spot markets have turned bearish due to lack of demand against sufficient availability. Mentha oil in Rampur market of Uttar Pradesh was last traded at Rs 1,006/kg, while in Sambhal priced near Rs 1,000/kg.

Courtesy: SMC Comtrade

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