MCX Cardamom market under long liquidation

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Cardamom on MCX settled down -2.95% at 1137.6 amid weak spot demand. Adequate stock position, following increased arrivals from producing regions, also weighed on prices. At Kumily market total arrivals are at 41502 kgs, down by 31868 kgs from previous trading day. Export shipments in 2016-17 are expected to drop due to expectations of less availability on higher domestic consumption and higher prices.

Domestic consumption is expected to be about 12,000-15,000 tonnes. The country exports roughly 15-20 per cent of its total cardamom production, thus, next year exports may be around 3,500-4,000 tonnes. Last year, cardamom exports jumped 35.8 per cent over the previous year to 5,938 tonnes, according to Department of Commerce data. The growth was driven by higher production and lower prices. Cardamom prices have been on the rise on expectations of a late harvest and lower production. Normally, the fresh crop starts arriving in the market in July but this time the new arrivals are expected to pick up only after August.

Delayed arrivals and lower stocks coupled with good export demand from West Asia should keep cardamom prices firm. It is expected that farmers may hold their high-quality cardamom to be harvested in August and may release at higher prices. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3% to settled at 905 while prices down -34.6 rupee, now Cardamom is getting support at 1118 and below same could see a test of 1098.3 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1166.7, a move above could see prices testing 1195.7.

Trading Ideas:
–Cardamom trading range for the day is 1098.3-1195.7.
–Cardamom prices ended with losses on continued profit booking amid weak spot demand
–Export shipments in 2016-17 are expected to drop due to expectations of less availability on higher domestic consumption.
–Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3%.
–Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 1.90 rupees and settled at 1080.60 rupees.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities

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