Cardamom may witness bull run; Soybean to trade down

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Turmeric futures (Aug) may gain taking support near 8200 levels. Spot turmeric prices at Erode remained in upward trend at Erode as the some traders have received upcountry orders & expecting more in days to come. Fresh upcountry buying in Warangal helped prices to revive in the spot market. In the current scenario, the stockiest are unlikely to liquidate their stocks easily. Further turmeric stocks in the country are balanced at present, but may contract going forward.

Cardamom futures (Aug) may witness a bull run & trade higher towards 960-970 levels. Fear of a likely scarcity of small cardamom in the coming days due to delay in harvesting has pushed up its prices at auctions. A study done in the Idukki District of Kerala, estimated that this season a 20-25% crop loss may occur in Idukki District of Kerala during 2016-17.

Coriander futures (Aug) may witness some correction from higher levels & remain below 7850 levels on account of profit booking & higher arrivals at the spot markets. Coriander prices have started declined in various market of Rajasthan on subdued demand due to increased supply. Arrival of commodity in Kota and nearby markets is high it is around 31,000 Bags. In Guna market arrival is 2,500 bags.

Jeera futures (Aug) is likely to maintain its upside momentum towards 20500 levels supported by good demand from both domestic and overseas. This year, the production is also lower and demand is very strong at this time compared to last year. It is estimated that China may import further 10,000 tonnes, while other countries like EU, US and Gulf countries are active in the market to buy for their requirements

The downtrend of soybean futures (Oct) may get extended further towards 3650 levels. In the current scenario, the demand for soybean meal is still not very encouraging. Secondly, there is steady sowing process of the oilseed continued due to a good monsoon season. In the state of Maharashtra, oilseeds have been sown on about 36.02 lakh hectare land, surpassing the average sowing on 34 lakh hectares. Soybean has been taken up on 3.4 lakh hectare area & the cultivation has reached up to 107%. On CBOT, U.S soybean futures (Nov) will possibly witness an extended downside & test $9.60 levels owing to higher production estimates. Argentina has raised its view for the country’s 2015-16 soybean to 58.8 million tonnes, compared with 58 million tonnes before.

Mustard futures (Aug) may witness a consolidation in the range of 4910-4965 levels, with downside getting capped. Mustard seed and by-products have extended to test fresh nine month high on in benchmark Jaipur market of Rajasthan. The uptrend journey is largely getting support from falling arrivals in spot market, due to which millers are not getting enough stock for crushing. In addition to it, improvement in edible oil prices is also supporting the counter.

CPO futures (Aug) may fall towards 485 levels, while refined soy oil futures (Aug) will possibly drop further towards 630-625 levels drawing weakness from global prices. U.S. soybeans fell for a second session to keep prices near a three-month low as updated weather forecasts called for more favorable conditions, easing concerns of potential yield losses. The most active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade fell 0.3 percent to $9.85-3/4 a bushel, having closed down 2.4 percent on Friday when prices hit $9.66-1/4 a bushel – the lowest since April 19.

Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to witness a correction & fall further towards 1040-1020 levels. A huge volatility was witnessed in domestic cotton market during the last week after consistent one sided rally since April as higher prices faded demand for the white gold by the mills. The natural fibre lost its appetite among the market participants and corrected over 4.5 percent this week ended Saturday. The primary reason that hurt the cotton prices were its competitiveness in yarn and garments that has prompted mills to stay sideline or slowdown consumption by going on production holiday to reduce losses as off take in finished products was not so great as was in raw material.

Mentha oil futures (Aug) can gain further in days to come & test 1000 levels. Earlier a couple of week before farmers were not selling their produce due to lower rates and now they are holding in the anticipation of more rise.

Guar seed (Oct) may face resistance near 4000 levels, while guar gum (Oct) may remain below 7500-7550 levels. The gains of the guar complex may remain capped due to imposition of higher margins on the counters. Additional Margin of 5 % on both the Long side and Short side will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Guar Seed and Guar Gum with effect from beginning of day Monday, July 25, 2016. The fundamentals highlight that supply-demand of guar seed for the current season is comfortable & the demand in guar gum is not very encouraging.

Courtesy: Smc Comtrade

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