Chilli prices may go up in near term: Geojit Comtrade


Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on spices. The research firm says Chilli futures are seen trading higher due to expectation of improvement in domestic demand and export orders. Increase in export enquiries from Bangladesh-Sri Lanka and rise in domestic demand is expected to push up chilli prices in the near term.

Pepper futures are expected to trade down due to higher production estimates and on concerns over ongoing probe by the exchange into alleged cartelisation. According to report from traders, pepper production is projected as 60000 tonnes this year, higher than official estimates of 55000 tonnes. As per the latest data from IPC, pepper output in Vietnam this year decreased to around 1 lakh tonnes from 1.10 lakh tonnes in 2011. During January-October 2012, total export of pepper from Vietnam was 102340 tonnes, registering a significant fall of 12 percent compared to export of 115780 tonnes in the same period last year. It is estimated that export from Vietnam would be around 1.10 lakh tonnes this year.

Jeera futures are seen trading lower due to subdued demand in physical markets, but likely rise in exports this year due to supply concerns from Turkey and Syria may support prices. On Saturday, arrivals in Unjha were around 3500 bags (1bag=55kg), down from 4000 bags arrived on Friday. The spot price for the spice traded at Rs.14400 per 100kg. According to market source, the sowing is gaining pace in major growing regions in India. The expectation of strong export demand and decline in daily arrivals are likely to support the prices at lower side. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey so far subsist. According to sources about 75 percent exports target has already been achieved due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war.

Turmeric may trade with a negative bias due to poor demand from stockists. The domestic demand stood on lower side as the stockists are waiting for the new crop to arrive in January. Weak export demand too weigh on the market sentiments. Alternatively, the farmers are holding back their stocks expecting a rise in price on reports that the Government will fix a Minimum Support Price. High stocks are also expected to weigh on the sentiment in the near term. On Saturday, turmeric arrivals in Nizamabad were around 700 bags (1bag=70kg) and the spot price stood at Rs.5100 per 100kg. Total production of turmeric in India in 2012-13 is expected to be around 50-60 percent lower compared to last year’s record high of 90 lakh bags.

Cardamom futures traded higher on reports of strong demand despite higher arrivals in major spot markets. On Sunday, the arrivals and offtake at the auction held in Idukki were around 85 tonnes each. The spot price on an average traded at Rs.854 per kg. The maximum price quoted was Rs.1135 per kg. According to market source, traders are buying entire stocks offered at the auctions in Kerala. Cardamom may gain further in medium term, when arrivals slumps in auctions as the domestic production is projected lower compared to last year. Meanwhile, the global production is likely to be on higher side. Guatemala produced a record of 10000 tonnes of cardamom in the month of October 2012.

Chilli futures are seen trading higher due to expectation of improvement in domestic demand and export orders from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Increase in export enquiries from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and rise in domestic demand from stockists is expected to push up chilli prices in the near term. On Saturday, chilli arrivals in Guntur stood unchanged from previous day at around 35000 bags (1bag=45kg). The spot price for 334-variety chilli traded at Rs.5800 per 100kg. However, harvesting of the new crop which is expected to begin by the end of December month may limit sharp rise in prices. Carry-forward stocks were reported as 20 lakh bags higher than usual.

Coriander futures traded weak due to ample supplies in spot market amid sluggish demand from stockists. However, the sowing of the spice which is estimated to be lower than last year may limit any sharp fall in prices. Also, expected rise in demand from domestic and export market may limit sharp fall in prices. In Eastern Europe, the production is estimated to be lower as severe winter and subsequent drought in the summer has impacted the crop. As well, likely fall in acreage in key growing region in India during the ongoing rabi season could support the prices. The area covered under coriander in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is estimated to be lower by around 30-40 percent. This is likely to reduce the overall production for the year 2013.

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